| by the CMM.com Editorial Staff (posted 2/04) – Santonio Holmes went to Disneyland and the Steeler fans held their parade across the frozen tundra of industrial Pennsylvania. And since pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training in Florida and Arizona in less than two weeks, one can assume we can put away thoughts of winter and cold and ice, right? WRONG! Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow on Monday and it means six more weeks of winter. So we might as well play more hockey. Valencia hosts the CAHA Play Down this weekend, and Mother Nature agreed to provide a smattering of winter weather (California style) with a forecasted three-day rain storm. And the CMM.com staff set aside its coconut oil and 40-man rosters for at least another few days to crank out this Preview….. The Current Format Sucks American society is getting softer every year and we seem to pamper our kids so that they’ll never feel bad. These are the days of participation trophies and for making everyone to feel like a winner. California’s youth hockey associations seem to fall lock-step into this notion. We present the CAHA Tier II hockey season as “Exhibit A”. SCAHA scheduled sixteen games to fill up the weekly season calendar, but who wins and who loses doesn’t matter because the games don’t count for anything but exercise. Tournaments at Labor Day, Thanksgiving, New Years and Presidents Day provide 16 to 20 more games but these games don’t count any more than the SCAHA games. The family gets a nice vacation and the kids get four more participation trophies. The League proclaimed that the only games that count are those played on designated CAHA weekends. Coaches all across the State hammered home the message that CAHA weekend games were different – special routines, shortened benches, more intensity. By the end of the four designated weekends, sure enough, the top teams separated themselves from not only the pack but from the lower-ranked playoff teams. But in an effort to create a more level playing field for the playoff participants, CAHA utilizes a somewhat evenly distributed schedule for the Play Down. For example, the #1 Jr Ducks must play #4 Gulls, #5 Stars Black and #8 OCHC while the #6 Jets play #2 Wave, #3 Jr Kings and #7 BCL92. Why go through the grind of dominating all the games that supposedly count only to come to the finish line and have to essentially start from square one again. In our opinion, the schedule should be weighted to give the top teams all the advantages their regular season success earned. They’ve earned the right to be penciled into the State Championship round. Lower teams should have to fight their way into the next round, to directly knock out one of the incumbents, so to speak. There’s no reason the #6 Jets should even be getting a sniff of the #7 Lightning at this point. The following lists the Play Down teams along with their actual schedule and the CMM.com proposed schedule….. #1 Jr Ducks Actual Schedule: #4 Gulls, #5 Stars1, #8 OCHC CMM.com Proposed Schedule: #6 Jets, #7 BCL92, #8 OCHC #2 Wave Actual Schedule: #3 Jr Kings, #6 Jets, #7 BCL92 CMM.com Proposed Schedule: #5 Stars1, #7 BCL92, #8 OCHC #3 Jr Kings Actual Schedule: #2 Wave, #6 Jets, #7 BCL92 CMM.com Proposed Schedule: #5 Stars1, #6 Jets, #8 OCHC #4 Gulls Actual Schedule: #1 Jr Ducks, #5 Stars1, #8 OCHC CMM.com Proposed Schedule: #5 Stars1 , #6 Jets, #7 BCL92 #5 Stars1 (Black) Actual Schedule: #1 Jr Ducks, #4 Gulls, #8 OCHC CMM.com Proposed Schedule: #2 Wave, #3 Jr Kings, #4 Gulls #6 Jets Actual Schedule: #2 Wave, #3 Jr Kings, #7 BCL92 CMM.com Proposed Schedule: #1 Jr Ducks, #3 Jr Kings, #4 Gulls #7 Lightning 92 (BCL92) Actual Schedule: #2 Wave, #3 Jr Kings, #6 Jets CMM.com Proposed Schedule: #1 Jr Ducks, #2 Wave, #4 Gulls #8 Orange County Hockey Club Actual Schedule: #1 Jr Ducks, #4 Gulls, #5 Stars1 CMM.com Proposed Schedule: #1 Jr Ducks, #2 Wave, #3 Jr Kings Weekend Preview The Top 5 (or Top 6, if including the Heat) teams have been a cut above the rest of the league all season. The gap in their winning percentage over the rest of the league is huge. Only the Top 5 have a goal differential in the black, and they range from +18 to +66. They average over 3.5 goals per game, while none of the other teams even make it to 3.0 - pretty much total domination across the board. However, they must have beat up the bottom of the league at a much higher clip, because the results among themselves tell another story. Let’s expand the pool to include all eight teams playing this weekend. If you throw out the #1 Jr Ducks and the #7 BCL92s, then toss the remaining six into a hopper, the scouting report of any random game selected would be, “on any given day…..” Here is each team’s record against the others in the Play Down, as well as their record against the teams they’re playing this weekend….. Jr Ducks = 12-1-0 (against weekend opponents = 6-0-0) Wave = 4-8-1 (against weekend opponents = 3-1-1) Jr Kings = 6-4-4 (against weekend opponents = 2-3-0) Gulls = 6-6-2 (against weekend opponents = 2-4-1) Stars1 = 7-7-2 (against weekend opponents = 2-5-0) Jets = 4-3-1 (against weekend opponents = 1-1-1) BCL92 = 1-11-2 (against weekend opponents = 1-2-2) OCHC = 6-6-2 (against weekend opponents = 2-3-1) This clearly shows why the Jr Ducks are the favorite to win the State title and why the Lightning 92s don’t belong - though they definitely should be roundly congratulated for making it this far. And just how the Wave made it to the #2 Seed with eight losses against its post season brothers is a mystery. Go figure. Anaheim Jr Ducks We stand by our season-long prediction that the Jr Ducks make it to the State championship game. They should have no problem sweeping three games in Valencia. California Wave Despite their poor record against playoff teams, the Wave got a good draw this weekend. Their chances of advancing though could rest on their ability to beat the Jr Kings for the third time in a row. We’ve been counting this team out all season and they’ve made us look really bad. But if there is a top team that will fall short of the mark, we think this is it. Los Angeles Jr Kings The Jr Kings advance because we think they are just too good to be beaten by the Wave three times in a row this season. Not very scientific, but there you have it. After that, they play the same pair of lower seeded teams as the Wave. San Diego Gulls The Gulls have been playing winning hockey for the last couple months of the season and they finished off the last two CAHA weekend sessions with a flurry. But their ability to advance in this tournament will be determined by the result of its first game, against the #5 Stars Black. A loss, and their season might be over on Saturday morning. California Stars Black What we wrote above for the Gulls is essentially the same story for the Black. Unlike San Diego though, the Stars ended the season very poorly, picking up only a point in the final CAHA weekend. Their season comes down to that game against the Gulls. Three previous games produced the following results: Nov 16th at San Jose, Gulls win 2-1; Dec 26th at Ontario, Gulls win 3-2 in a tournament shootout; Jan 24th at Ontario, Black win 3-1. Call the shootout win a tie, and this series is even at 1-1-1. This, and the Jr Kings v Wave, will be the games of the weekend. If you put a gun to our head, we’ll say the Gulls win and advance to the late Sunday game. Vacaville Jets If a lower seeded team sneaks into the Championship party, it will be this one. The Jets have a great draw, considering they’re sitting at #6. On the other hand, they could also end up with three more ties and skulk back home with a 15-14-13 overall season record. That might be more impressive than advancing. The Jets are flying high right now after a fantastic CAHA IV – we pick them to win two games and make it at least to Sunday afternoon. Beach City Lightning 92 The Bolt92s have had a wonderful ride through this hockey season and earned a lot of street cred along the way. We’ve cheered as loud as anyone for the way they continued to turn adversity into triumph. However this weekend marks the end of the line though you can count on them to try to squeeze out a point or two. Orange County Hockey Club This team should be fishing right now, and they know it. That they’re in the post-season festivities is pure gravy for this group. OCHC should be totally relaxed and playing for fun and that makes them a dangerous opponent for any team. That they’re a very respectable 2-3-1 against their three opponents (and 2-1-1 against non-Duck opponents) should send shivers up the spines of the Black and Gulls. OC won’t advance, but they’ll be the source of a surprise or two this weekend. Projected Results Top 2 in each bracket automatically advance after the 3-game Round Robin: Jr Ducks and Jr Kings Second and Third seeds in each bracket cross over (2 v 3) and play each other in what amounts to an elimination game Jets v Stars Black, and Gulls v Wave The Final Four We see the Final Four advancing to Riverside later this month as the Jr Ducks, Jr Kings, Gulls, and Jets Packing it In This might be it for the season – not sure if our passion bucket will be full enough to generate a Play Down recap or a CAHA Championship preview – but we’ll see. A lot may depend on where Manny signs. Stay tuned, but if this is it - it’s been a blast. Thanks to everyone who kept coming back to the site all season. |
| CAHA PlayDown - Preview |
