| by the CMM.com Editorial Staff (posted 1/16) – The staff at CalMidgetMinor.com needed a vacation after the long weekend in Escondido which came on the heels of our rockin' New Year holiday. Because of that and the short two-week turnaround between CAHA weekends, we elected to roll the CAHA III Recap into the CAHA IV Preview (Let me translate the previous two sentences for you: The Chairperson of the Board at CMM.com read the CAHA III Preview and wasn’t pleased with the prospects of Christmas lights being on the house until July or the tall, noble fir twig in her living room becoming fodder for the local termite population). As a result of said really-long-vacation, we are once again, up against a deadline. Onward….. The End Result of CAHA III was the establishment of some very compelling storylines at this weekend’s CAHA IV – it’s going to be great theater. Before we get into that, let’s take a step back and review where teams stand today. The Top 1 – It’s actually been this way all season, but now that we’re in spitting distance of the CAHA Post-season, it’s time we pull the California Heat out of the equation. As host of the 2009 USA Hockey Pacific District Midget AA 16u Championships, they receive an automatic berth into that event and are exempt from the State playoffs. We’ll stick them on a golden cushion on top of the heap and set-up a wake-up call for March 5th. They have an interesting weekend coming up so we’ll mention them once more in the Preview, then send them off to bed. The Top 4 – Anaheim Jr Ducks, Los Angeles Jr Kings, California Wave, and California Stars Black are IN – perhaps not mathematically so in all cases, but believe me, they’re IN. The Stars Black took care of business in Escondido to cement their spot among the league’s elite. The Contenders – Eight teams are fighting for the remaining four berths in the CAHA 8-team play-down: Southern California Titans, San Diego Gulls, Orange County Hockey Club, Beach City Lightning 92, Inland Valley Wild, Vacaville Jets, Beach City Lightning 93 and SoCal-Hockey Jr Ice Dogs. The nine games this weekend pitting teams from this group against one another will determine who continues to play meaningful games in February. BCL93’s chances are hurt by the fact they only have three games remaining, albeit all against teams immediately ahead of them – but it’s doubtful that 15 points will be enough to bring home the prize. Playing the Spoiler – After over 75% of the games completed, only four teams can be deemed out of the playoff race: California Cougars, San Jose Jr Sharks, San Diego Saints and California Stars Red. These teams have seven chances to upset the dreams of those in the Contender group. California Heat 12-0-0 in CAHA; 28-5-0 v CAHA teams; 32-9-1 Overall; 5-3-0 v the Top 5 Weekend Opponents: Wave (Fri), Jr Kings (Sat), Saints (Sun), Stars Black (Sun at El Segundo) The top ranked Heat held serve at CAHA III, winning three easy games 4-0, 6-1, 3-1. Now a perfect 12-0-0, they look to finish things off in the same manner but will have to bring its “A” game to get it done. The Heat may not be in the CAHA playoffs next month but they’ll feel like it this weekend with a fairly rugged schedule. However, look for them to make it to 15-0-0 before finally dropping one to the Black on Sunday night in the last game of the last CAHA weekend. Unfortunately nobody will be around to see it – not only does the game start at 8:00pm, but it’s at the Toyota Sports Center in El Segundo (What’s with that?!! This is the best game of the weekend). Luckily, we’ll be able to get the blow-by-blow after-action report (from on the ice and from the parental chirping along the glass) later on the SoCal-Hockey.com Tier forum. Last one to yell, "LOOK AT THE SCOREBOARD!!" wins. Anaheim Jr Ducks 11-2-0 in CAHA; 22-2-0 v CAHA teams; 28-7-2 Overall; 5-2-0 v the Top 5 Weekend Opponents: OCHC (Fri at El Segundo), Jr Sharks (Sat), Wild (Sun) The Jr Ducks continued its winning ways against CAHA competition at Escondido, the only team to come out of the weekend with eight points. Look for another perfecto at CAHA IV – even the schedule works for them, one game per day. By the way, of our prediction from the last Preview that the Jr Ducks don’t lose another game prior to the playdown in February, we update it now to read, “they don’t lose another game prior to the State Championship game in Riverside.” Anything can happen in a championship game, but until then, plant us firmly on the Ducks bandwagon. Los Angeles Jr Kings 9-1-2 in CAHA; 21-5-4 v CAHA teams; 27-7-4 Overall; 3-4-1 v the Top 5 Weekend Opponents: Stars Black (Sat), Heat (Sat), Jr Sharks (Sun), Jets (Sun) In the CAHA III Preview, we commented that the Kings were on cruise control and foresaw no bumps in the road for this playoff-bound squad. And at 3-0-1 in Escondido, the Jr Kings had a successful weekend – but they sure made things exciting with two 1-goal games and a tie against Contender-level competition. While the only thing that matters is getting the two points, the Kings right now aren’t currently looking like the sharpest arrow in the quiver. We’ll see if what ailed them was just a matter of playing down to the level of the competition. This weekend they face the Black and the Heat on Saturday. Hopefully for them, they don’t have a weekend like the Wave got at CAHA III. California Wave 9-3-0 in CAHA; 16-10-1 v CAHA teams; 21-13-1 Overall; 2-5-0 v the Top 5 Weekend Opponents: Heat (Sat), OCHC (Sat), BCL92 (Sun), Stars Red (Sun) Back in the CAHA II Preview, we suggested that CAHA III would be the Wave’s big litmus test. Sure enough, after scratching and clawing its way to a 9-0-0 CAHA record, they had the tables turned on them in Escondido. The Wave lost the final three games including one decisively to the host Gulls. They need to ride the wave of momentum into the February playdown so it will be important to get things back on track this weekend. Unfortunately, we don’t see that happening – look for a loss to the Heat, a win against the Red and at best, a split with the two Contenders, OC and the BCL92s. Even so, 11-5-0 and 22 final points will be nothing to sneeze at. California Stars Black 9-3-1 in CAHA; 19-8-4 v CAHA teams; 21-11-5 Overall; 3-6-1 v the Top 5 Weekend Opponents: Jr Kings (Sat), Jets (Sat), Heat (Sun at El Segundo) This team drives us crazy – they ride the ups and downs of having young players who are very talented. On the other hand, we’re very happy with our Stars Black prediction in the CAHA III Preview – to refresh your memories, “In order to make the Top 4 a legitimate “Top 5”, the Black need to take care of business in the three games leading up to the finale against the Wave. Their track record says they’ll struggle and drop a game along the way.” They didn’t drop a game, but they did manage to let the BCL93s tie them. Overall, they ended up beating the Wave while finishing 3-0-1 and establishing the Stars Black as a legitimate Top 5 team. We’ll go way out on a limb and call for a perfect 3-0-0 weekend against about as tough a schedule as you’ll find anywhere. Southern California Titans 6-5-1 in CAHA; 10-14-3 v CAHA teams; 14-16-4 Overall; 0-10-0 v the Top 5; 4-3-3 v Contenders Weekend Opponents: Gulls (Sat), Wild (Sat), BCL93 (Sun), Jr Sharks (Sun) Hopefully it won’t come back to haunt them. We observed in the CAHA III Preview that the Titans needed four points on the weekend to stay on pace for a berth in the play-down and that their most important game was the first one against the Jets. They led 2-1 with 4.7 seconds remaining in the game and a face-off in their own end. Instead of killing the puck off the draw, they lost it and in a mad scramble in front of the net, the Jets cashed in the tying goal with under a second to play. Point lost – keep it in mind when we tally up the final standings on Sunday night. Still, the Titans have a point in hand over the rest of the pack and thus control their own destiny. Three games against contenders and one against a Spoiler - two wins this weekend would have been enough, but that missing Jets point makes things more dicey. San Diego Gulls 5-5-2 in CAHA; 13-7-5 v CAHA teams; 21-10-5 Overall; 4-5-1 v the Top 5; 6-2-3 v Contenders Weekend Opponents: Wild (Fri), Titans (Sat), Jr Sharks (Sat), BCL92 (Sun) After a disastrous CAHA I where they dropped all four games, the Gulls regrouped and have almost made it back to where they belong – in the playoffs, and in the Top 6. In the CAHA III Preview, we called for the Gulls to make it a perfect weekend and they almost came through – a little hiccup in the last game, a 3-3 tie with the Ice Dogs. Having the four games spread over three days at Lakewood sets up nicely for them. The Gulls should run the table and finish strongly with 20 points. Their danger game will be Friday night against the Wild on the travel day. The last time they faced this situation was at CAHA I when they dropped a 3-1 decision to the OC on a Friday night in Valencia. Orange County Hockey Club 5-5-2 in CAHA; 13-11-3 v CAHA teams; 16-14-3 Overall; 2-5-1 v the Top 5; 6-5-1 v Contenders Weekend Opponents: Jr Ducks (Fri at El Segundo), Wave (Sat), Stars Red (Sat), Ice Dogs (Sun) The OC let a tremendous opportunity slip through their fingers on Sunday afternoon in Escondido when they dropped a tough 1-0 decision to the Wild. They could have earned seven points on the weekend and sole possession of 6th place. Instead, 2-1-1 and a tie for seventh was the result. More importantly, OC probably needs more than two wins this weekend to make it and we see it as doubtful that they can beat both the Wave and Jr Ice Dogs. They’ve struggled this season in close games (2-5 in one-goal games) and this weekend will be all about close-checking playoff hockey. Beach City Lightning 92 5-6-1 in CAHA; 10-17-1 v CAHA teams; 12-20-2 Overall; 1-10-0 v the Top 5; 5-6-1 v Contenders Weekend Opponents: Ice Dogs (Fri), Cougars (Sat), Wave (Sat), Gulls (Sun) The worm turned for BCL92 in Escondido. 5-3-0 and a tie for 6th place on Saturday morning became 5-6-1 and a tie for 9th place by Sunday night. They desperately needed wins against OC and the Jets but could only manage a single point in the standings. They could have cruised into the playoffs but instead, now face the daunting task of games against a Top 5 and two very tough Contenders. They’ll need three wins for a real shot at the post-season – it’s not looking good. Inland Valley Wild 4-5-3 in CAHA; 9-10-5 v CAHA teams; 14-20-5 Overall; 2-6-0 v the Top 5; 3-3-3 v Contenders Weekend Opponents: Gulls (Fri), BCL93 (Sat), Titans (Sat), Jr Ducks (Sun) If I remember correctly, we wrote a passage in the Wild’s CAHA III Preview that suggested three wins sets up some possibilities for the Wild at CAHA IV. Well they did it, barely squeezing out that third win on Sunday afternoon, 1-0 over the OC in what Wild insiders considered the most important game of the season to date. They added that it was the first time all season every player delivered focus and intensity for an entire game – and it certainly paid off in a big way. With a game against the Jr Ducks on Sunday afternoon, the Wild are going to have to wrap things up in its first three games, the toughest one being the first one against the Gulls on Friday night. If the Wild beat the Gulls on Friday night, watch out! The action on Saturday will be incredible. Vacaville Jets 3-5-4 in CAHA; 7-10-6 v CAHA teams; 12-14-8 Overall; 0-4-0 v the Top 5; 2-1-4 v Contenders Weekend Opponents: BCL93 (Fri), Saints (Sat), Stars Black (Sat), Jr Kings (Sun) The Jets had high hopes (sky high hopes, if you will) when they landed in Escondido because they had four very winnable games on the docket. Eight points might not have been probable, but it certainly existed within the realm of reasonable possibility. In the end, the dramatic last-second game-tying goal against the Titans was not the springboard of destiny, but rather a sign (okay, a billboard) of things to come. Three ties and a loss equal three points, or in this case, three strikes and they’re out. The Jets still have a puncher’s chance, but needing three wins when half the games are against Top 5 competition is no way to fly. Beach City Lightning 93 4-8-1 in CAHA; 13-17-4 v CAHA teams; 13-24-4 Overall; 1-11-2 v the Top 5; 4-5-2 v Contenders Weekend Opponents: Jets (Fri), Wild (Sat), Titans (Sun) BCL93 reportedly picked up a very good goalie before the deadline and are hoping to ride him to the Promised Land. Whether it’s too little, too late remains to be seen, but they have three very winnable games this weekend. Unfortunately, it’s the only three games the 93s have remaining; three wins equal six points. The question is will 15 points be enough to do the job? SoCal-Hockey Jr Ice Dogs 3-7-2 in CAHA; 6-20-4 av CAHA teams; 9-23-4 Overall; 0-10-1 v the Top 5; 3-8-3 v Contenders Weekend Opponents: BCL92 (Fri), Stars Red (Sat), OCHC (Sat), Cougars (Sun) Why does a team with a 3-7-2 record get grouped with the Contenders and not the Spoilers? The quick answer is because I said so, but in actuality it’s because they have been playing very well. In Escondido, they dropped a one goal game to the Jr Kings and tied the Jets and Gulls. The 2-2 tie with the Gulls was the only blemish on San Diego’s weekend record. This weekend, the Dogs host CAHA IV and have four very winnable games spread across three days. A sweep gives them 16 points and a possible seat at the table. Then again, as well as they might be playing, this is still a team that hasn’t won two games in a row all season. California Cougars 2-7-3 in CAHA; 9-10-6 v CAHA teams; 11-18-6 Overall; 0-5-1 v the Top 5 Weekend Opponents: BCL92 (Sat), Saints (Sat at El Segundo), Stars Red (Sun), Ice Dogs (Sun) The Cougars get two shots at playing Spoiler this weekend and depending on if a certain bearded wonderkind gets off a plane from Beantown, they could do some real damage. But after dropping all four games at Escondido, the Cougars should save the airfare and put a deposit on a new model for next season. A Cougar sweep this weekend sets up all kinds of nightmarish tie-breaking possibilities. San Jose Jr Sharks 2-8-2 in CAHA; 6-13-4 v CAHA teams; 14-24-4 Overall; 0-4-1 v the Top 5 Weekend Opponents: Jr Ducks (Sat), Jr Kings (Sat), Gulls (Sun), Titans (Sun) The Jr Sharks own the toughest schedule of the weekend - a hell of a way to go out. Case closed. San Diego Saints 1-10-2 in CAHA; 5-21-2 v CAHA teams; 7-23-2 Overall; 1-7-0 v the Top 5 Weekend Opponents: Jets (Sat), Cougars (Sat at El Segundo), Heat (Sun) The Saints complete a disappointing season with a mixed bag this weekend: a Contender, a Spoiler and a Top 5 California Stars Red 1-11-0 in CAHA; 1-29-0 v CAHA teams; 1-30-0 Overall; 0-11-0 v the Top 5 Weekend Opponents: Ice Dogs (Sat), OCHC (Sat), Cougars (Sun), Wave (Sun) Belated congratulations to the Red on their first victory of the season on Sunday afternoon in Escondido. We really wanted to see that celebration on ice but was by then back at home. Do it again this weekend. Key Games Three games each day pit two Contenders against one another. While every game they play has meaning, these nine games give the participants a double-win or a double-loss, I.e. they not only win, but they give a direct challenger a lost opportunity. Friday: Jr Ice Dogs v Lightning 92s (1845); Wild v Gulls (1900); Jets v Lightning 93s (2030) Saturday: Gulls v Titans (0850); Lightning 93s v Wild (1145); Wild v Titans (1830) Sunday: Titans v Lightning 93s (0815); Ice Dogs v OCHC (0920); Lightning 92s v Gulls (1100) Additionally there will be a handful of games among the Top 5, mostly involving the Heat. Friday: Wave v Heat (2045) Saturday: Jr Kings v Stars Black (0815), Heat v Jr Kings (1715); Sunday: Heat v Stars Black (2000) How it Will All Come Out Projected Final Standings Heat (30) 1. Jr Ducks (28) 2. Stars Black (25) 3. Jr Kings (24) 4. Wave (22) 5. Gulls (20) 6. OCHC (17) 7 & 8 comes down to the results of BCL93 v Wild, Wild v Titans, and Titans v BCL93 and I have no idea how those will come out. However, keep this in mind: If the Wild win both games and the Titans lose both games, the final slots work out like this….. t-7. Titans (15) – 7 wins (beat JID) t-7. Wild (15) – 6 wins (beat JID, Titans) t-7. Jr Ice Dogs (15) – 6 wins 10. Jets (14) That’s All Folks – This of course has all been for entertainment purposes, the kids will determine how this all works out on the ice. But it’ll give you a little guidance into the significance of certain games this weekend. Best of luck to all participants. Apologies for the delay in posting. |
| CAHA Tier II Weekend #4 - Preview |
